Drug Development Model

www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5765/1246/DC1 Supporting Online clobber for A Portfolio formulate of Drug Development for Tuberculosis Seth W. Glickman, Emma B. Rasiel, Carol Dukes Hamilton, Arsen Kubataev, Kevin A. Schulman* * originator for correspondence. e-mail: kevin.schulman@duke.edu. Published 3 March 2006, Science 311, 1246 (2006). inside: 10.1126/science.1119299 This PDF cross-file includes Methods Figs. S1 and S2 Table S1 References Science Supporting Online Material Glickman, p. 1 Supporting Online Material Methods Inputs to the basic portfolio puzzle include skill probabilities, costs, duration, and costs of crownwork for distributively stage of drug maturement, as described below. achievement Probabilities Several numbers of supremacy probabilities at each manakin of drug development and the probabilities of passing between phases pick out been published (S1, S2). change success probabilities in our model ar 0.10 for preclinical test to phase I testing, 0.30 for phase I to phase II, 0.50 for phase II to phase ternary, and 0.65 for phase III to product launch. These estimates were generated from interview with experts in atomic exit 65 research and development, and they be specific to tuberculosis drug development (S1).

A key feature of the model is its ability to estimate the likelihood that star or more(prenominal) unites at a granted stage of development go forth be successful. It is chief(prenominal) to note that this is not the same prise as the success probability of a given compound. For example, if the probabilities of success at phases 1 through 3 are 30 percent, 40 percent, and 50 percent, res pectively, the probability that any one comp! ound will attend is the product of the three probabilities, or 6 percent. If 20 compounds are in phase I, the mean (expected) number of successful compounds is 1.2 (i.e., 20 × 6 percent). To estimate the likelihood that one or more compounds will be successful, we must itemize every doable outcome, attach a probability to that outcome, and...If you indigence to get a full essay, order it on our website: OrderEssay.net

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